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Sur la probabilité d'extinction d'une population dans un environnement périodique lent

Abstract : We study the probability of extinction of a population modelled by a linear birth-and-death process with several types in a periodic environment when the period is large compared to other time scales. This probability depends on the season and may present a sharp jump in relation to a "canard" in a slow-fast dynamical system. The point of discontinuity is determined precisely in an example with two types of individuals related to a vector-borne disease transmission model.
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02388815
Contributor : Nicolas Bacaer <>
Submitted on : Saturday, April 4, 2020 - 6:49:19 PM
Last modification on : Monday, May 18, 2020 - 2:32:48 PM

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  • HAL Id : hal-02388815, version 2

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Nicolas Bacaer, Claude Lobry, Tewfik Sari. Sur la probabilité d'extinction d'une population dans un environnement périodique lent. 2020. ⟨hal-02388815v2⟩

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