Infering meteorological information at different scales from several sources of data - AVIGNON
Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2023

Infering meteorological information at different scales from several sources of data

Résumé

One of the major challenges to monitor, foresee and anticipate the landscape evolution is to understand the climate change geographical effects (Aspinal, 2012) on different, especially local, scales (Martin et al., 2013; Barry & Blanken, 2016). For instance, measuring the evolution of temperature is possible, one the one hand, using a series of (often spatially accurate, but irregular) sensors spread over a given territory (e.g. a watershed). On another hand, we have today a large access to climate models, providing meteorological projections at a certain (generally coarse, but regular) spatial and temporal granularity. From both those types of data, scientist can infer information at different (nested) scales, applying upscaling (by spatial data aggregation) or downscaling (assuming some disaggregation hypothesis) processes. This work deals with this issue: how can we infer a reliable spatial information from meteorological data provided from two different levels and methodologies? More precisely, can we provide relevant estimations on climate drivers at different scales, in the particular case of meteorological data (illustrated by temperature)? To answer to these two questions, we face two problems: (i) how to combine these two sources of data (ii) and how to deal with the Ecological Effect (Holt, 1996; King, 1997) or the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (Openshaw, 1984), that may strongly impair the estimate reliability and usability to forecast the likely climate landscapes for the future? In this work, we present recent results obtained by studying temperatures measurements from a set of meteorological stations and the ALADIN model grid on long time series in the French southern region of Provence Alpes Côte d’Azur. Using those two sources of data, we aggregate temperature values and observe their variation through different administrative territorial partitions (somehow French delineations under the regional scale NUTS2 : “départements”, “arrondissements”, “cantons”, “communes” and “EPCI”, i.e. groups of communes). This leads us to draw what we call “scalograms” which plot average or median temperatures according to the different nested levels of scale. Those are provided for both the gridded ALADIN model and the series of local meteorological stations, and compared. We notice some differences in the estimations that show the necessary caution to pay for generating meteorological data using a multiple scale approach. A method, published a few year ago, based on spatial random permutation (Josselin et al., 2008) and generalized to any data (Josselin et al., 2023), is applied on this kind of climate data to mitigate the change of support problem and to improve the data reliability to potentially characterize more accurately the landscapes at different scales. References Aspinal R. (Ed.). (2012). Geography of climate change. Routeledge, Taylon Fancis. Barry R. G., Blanken P. D. (Eds.). (2016). Microclimate and local climate. Cambridge University Press. Holt D., Steel D., Tranmer M., Wrigley N. (1996). Aggregation and ecological effects in geographically based data. Geographical Analysis, vol. 28, p. 244-261. Josselin D., Mahfoud I., Fady B. (2008). Impact of a change of support on the assessment of biodiversity with shannon entropy. In Spatial Data Handling, SDH’2008", pp. 109-131. Montpellier, June, 23-25. Josselin D., Blanke D., Coulon M., Boulay G., Casanova Enault L., Peris A., Le Brun P., Lecourt T. (to be published, 2023). Incertitudes liées aux échelles d'estimation des prix immobiliers. In L’imperfection des données géographiques. Tome 2. (Eds: M. Batton-Hubert, E. Desjardin, F. Pinet), ISTE-Wiley King G. (1997). A solution to the ecological inference problem. Reconstructing individual behaviour from aggregate data. Princeton University Press. Martin N., Carrega P., Adnès C. (2013). Downscaling à fine résolution spatiale des températures actuelles et futures par modélisation statistique des sorties ALADIN-climat sur les Alpes-Maritimes (France). Climatologie, Association internationale de climatologie, pp.51-72. Openshaw S. (1984). The modifiable areal unit problem. Norwich: Geo Books, CATMOG 38.
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Dates et versions

hal-04351525 , version 1 (18-12-2023)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04351525 , version 1

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Didier Josselin, Matthieu Vignal, Nicolas Viaux, Delphine Blanke, Céline Lacaux. Infering meteorological information at different scales from several sources of data. ECTQG'2023, Université de Braga (Portugal), Sep 2023, Braga, Portugal. 2 p. ⟨hal-04351525⟩
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