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              <p>The MOSARH21 project evaluated the future impacts of climate change on streamflows from the French tributaries of the River Rhine based on recent climate projections (CMIP5 experiment). The adopted methodology relies on two hydrological models (GRSD and LARSIM), used jointly with an ensemble of climate projections disaggregated at the local scale. The impacts were quantified with several indicators describing rivers regimes, floods and low flows. The evolutions of mean interannual streamflow indicate a slight increase, which could even become important for the radiative scenario RCP 8.5 (the most pessimistic one in terms of climate warming). Flood could intensify in the near future (2021-2050). In the far future (2071-2100), the evolution of floods indicators is more uncertain, as the hydrological projections diverge. Low flows could be decreasing in the near future. Their evolution in the far future is more uncertain, going from drastic decrease to sensible rise depending on the chosen scenario. The results were compared to those from previous impact studies performed on the basin. Given the methodological differences and the obtained results, we can conclude that the MOSARH21 project is consistent with the conclusions of the previous studies.</p>
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              <p>Le projet MOSARH21 a réalisé une évaluation des effets du changement climatique anthropique sur les débits des affluents français du Rhin grâce à des projections climatiques récentes (expérience CMIP5). La démarche s'appuie sur deux modèles hydrologiques, GRSD et LARSIM, utilisés conjointement avec un ensemble de projections climatiques désagrégées. Les effets sont quantifiés à l'aide de divers indicateurs relatifs aux régimes des cours d'eau, aux crues et aux étiages. Les projections hydrologiques indiquent que les débits moyens interannuels seraient en légère augmentation, celle-ci pouvant même devenir importante pour le scénario radiatif RCP 8.5 (scénario le plus pessimiste en termes de réchauffement climatique). L'aléa de crue devrait s'intensifier dans un futur proche (2021-2050). En revanche, dans un futur lointain (2071-2100), l'évolution des indicateurs de crue est incertaine, les projections hydrologiques étant divergentes. Les débits d'étiages diminueraient dans un futur proche. Leur évolution pour la fin du siècle est plus incertaine, allant de la baisse drastique à une augmentation sensible selon le scénario choisi. Les résultats ont été comparés à ceux obtenus dans le cadre d'études d'impact antérieures réalisées dans la partie française du bassin du Rhin. Compte tenu des différences méthodologiques et des résultats obtenus, on peut conclure que la base de connaissances actualisée produite dans le cadre du projet MOSARH21 valide les tendances des études précédentes.</p>
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</TEI>