Réversibilité du stockage géologique des déchets radioactifs : la théorie des options réelles dans l'aide à la décision

Abstract : In France, the Act n° 2006-739 of 28 June 2006 establishes the reversible geological disposal for intermediate and high-level waste (ILWand HLW). The reversibility is mainly justified by the need to preserve some ability to adapt over the long term (at least one hundred years) in a context of multiple uncertainties. The proposed thesis examines how the real options approach can be effectively applied to the French project of reversible geological disposal for the radioactive waste, developed by the National Agency for Radioactive Waste (ANDRA). Different aspects of decision making process are addressed through three real options models. Each model emphasizes a certain type of real option : the switching option, the extension option and the learning option. The first model focuses on the uncertainty about the value of a radioactive waste package and its influence on the switching options between different stages of retrievability. The results show that the reversible project of geological disposal involves a series of compound options (options on options) which may create follow-up opportunities and interactions. For example, realizing an earlier real option (such as closing the galleries of access) can change the value of future options for the retrieval of waste packages. Given these interactions between options, their value must be simultaneously determined. In the second model, the focus is moved to the construction of the geological repository. The result of the second model shows that there may be a value associated with the progressive development of the operating capacity due to the uncertainty on the demand for radioactive waste disposal. This is precisely the value of the extension option which must be calculated to determine whether it is economically advantageous to increase the capacity. The third model, more conceptual, is an attempt to open new avenues of research on the value of the learning option in the presence of endogenous information. The option value is analyzed by integrating two sources of learning (Learning by doing and R & D).
Document type :
Theses
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http://docnum.univ-lorraine.fr/prive/NANCY2/doc589/2011NAN20009.pdf?
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Submitted on : Thursday, March 29, 2018 - 12:00:54 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, July 25, 2018 - 1:24:33 AM

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  • HAL Id : tel-01749094, version 1

Citation

Oana Riffaud. Réversibilité du stockage géologique des déchets radioactifs : la théorie des options réelles dans l'aide à la décision. Economies et finances. Université Nancy 2, 2011. Français. ⟨NNT : 2011NAN20009⟩. ⟨tel-01749094⟩

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