tr??s?? ?r???rt??s ?? t?? s?st??? ??r???t?r ?? ?r?s??t t?? ????r?? ???? ??r t?? ??????t?? r?s??r??? ??rst??? t? st?rt t?? r?s??r??? t?? ??????rt????s s??t???? ??r ??t???? ??????s?s ??r? ???s?? ??? ???r??t?r???? ????r????t???? ??? t???r?t?????? ????????s ??? ?tr??s?? ?????? ???s t?? t???r?t???? ??? ????r????t?? r?s??r?? ?? ??????rt????s t? ?st???t? t???r ??t???? ?r???rt??s ?s ,
s ?r?? ??st???? I(?, r i,i=1:6 )? ?t ?s ?????? t? ?st???t? t?? ??t???? ?r???rt??s ?? t?? ????t??s? I(?, r i,i=1:6 )s ?? ??t??? ??s ???s??? ?s s??? ?s ?t q??t? ???? r??r?s??ts ??t??? ?????t???s ?? t?? ????r????t ??? t?? ?rr?r? ?? 10 8 ,
? X model Xexper ) 2 ? ??? ??st?????t??? ?s ???????t?? ??t?r ???? ?t?r?t??? ??? t?? ????? ???????t?? ?s ???r??????? ??r?? ?s s??? ?s t?? ??st? ,
????? t?ss??s ???? s??? ???? ???? ??? ??st g????t?r ?? ??? ?s ?s?? ?????s? ??r ???? ???r ?? (µ s , g) ????? ??s t?? s??? µ ? s ????s? r????t???? ????s t?? s??? ????? ????? ??r? I 0 ??rr?s????s t? t?? r???r? ,
? s????s r??r?s??t?? ?r? ????s????? ??r t?? ?????s? ????? µ s ????s? t?? ??st?????t??? ????? ??r??s ?? ???? r????? ??r ??t? t???s ?? t?? ??r??r? ?????s? ??r µ a ????s t??s ??r??t??? ?s ???? s?????r? ?t ?s r??r?s??t??, ????? ?? ?? ?1 ? ??r? s???t??? ??? ?tt?? ??t? t?? s??? ????t???s ?s ???? ?s t?? ??t? ??t????? ??r t?? ???? r????s ?? (µ s ,
µ s , µ a )? ???s ??r s??tt?r??? ????????t t?? ?rr?r ??s r?????? ??? t?? r????s ,
r?? ??? ???r?s????? s???tr? ??r? t???? t? ??? ??t ?? t?? ????t ?? ??????rt????s ?r?s???? ????? ?? s??? ?r?? t?? s???tr?s????? st?????st?t? s?????? ?t ??s ,
?r g(?)? r??r??t??? ????? n(?)? ??? t? ???t?????r ?????? t??s ??t? ????r??t t??????ss ?? ????rsz i ? ???r? i?rt????s ?????? t?? ???r?? tr??s??r s????? ?? t?? ???t?s??s?t???r PP??? t??s t?? ???r?? tr??s??r t? t?? tr????t ????? ?? t?? PP?? ???????? ?s ??rt?? ???????? ???? st??? s??? ??sts ? ??t??t??? ,