Contribution of integrated modelling for the study of climate change impact on water resources. The case of the Tadla irrigated perimeter (central-eastern Morocco).
Résumé
Water deficit in semi-arid regions like North Africa is increasing due to rising water needs and decreasing resources. Morocco is one of the countries facing this water shortage problem. In particular, its central part, characterized by a semi-arid climate, which has suffered a succession of periods of drought making it difficult for water resources to meet the various water needs, particularly the agricultural sector which consumes the majority of water resources.
Located in central-eastern Morocco, the socio-economic development in the Tadla irrigated perimeter, particularly in the agricultural sector, has been accompanied by intense exploitation of water resources. Increased demand for irrigation water and reduced renewable supplies represent major challenges for the resource sustainability in this perimeter. In this regard, efficient and sustainable water management is a constant concern, requiring improved knowledge and the implementation of water resource management tools.
In the context of currently perceptible climate changes, the aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change and human activities on water resources in the Tadla irrigated perimeter. To achieve this objective, we propose an integrated approach based on water resource and demand modelling, considering various water use scenarios and their evolution. This approach integrates field data, remote sensing and modelling methods to analyse the interactions between the different physical compartments "climate-water-soil" of the studied area and evaluate its capacity to meet current and future water demand, with a view to proposing adaptation measures for sustainable water use.