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Approche probabiliste du dimensionnement contre le risque de rupture

Abstract : Within SINTAP, a probabilistic procedure has been developed to calculate the probability of failure and to determine the safety and the reliability factors. To calculate the probability of failure, a multi-dimensional integral has to be evaluated: fX(x) is known joint probability density function of the random vector X. The following parameters are treated as random parameters: Fracture toughness Yield strength Ultimate tensile strength Defect distribution The parameters can follow a normal, log-normal, Weibull or some special distributions (for the defects). The failure probability integral is very hard to evaluate using numerical integration. Instead, the following numerical algorithms are included within the procedure: Simple Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), First & Second -Order Reliability Method (FORM & SORM). Simple Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is a simple method that uses the fact that the failure probability integral can be interpreted as a mean value in a stochastic experiment. An estimate is therefore given by averaging a suitably large number of independent outcomes (simulations) of this experiment. First/Second-Order Reliability Method (FORM/SORM) uses a combination of both analytical and approximate methods, when estimating the probability of failure. Example of application of such a method to deferent defects is proposed. The influence of temperature on safety and reliability factors is discussed.
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Submitted on : Thursday, March 29, 2018 - 1:46:36 PM
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Salim Georges Jallouf. Approche probabiliste du dimensionnement contre le risque de rupture. Autre. Université Paul Verlaine - Metz, 2006. Français. ⟨NNT : 2005METZ011S⟩. ⟨tel-01752426⟩



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