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Quantification des incertitudes liées aux simulations d'écoulement dans un réservoir pétrolier à l'aide de surfaces de réponse non linéaires

Abstract : This work develops several methodologies to assess uncertainty on oil reservoir production. Taking in consideration that flow simulations are time consuming it uses response surfaces to approximate the relationship between reservoir uncertain parameters and production variables. First deterministic methods are developed to construct and analyze such surfaces: construction algorithms are the discrete smooth interpolation and the dual kriging while analysis methods are the variance based sensitivity analysis and the bayesian inversion of production history. This framework is then extended to include fast flow simulation results and to handle stochastic parameters characterized by a random effect on reservoir production. These methodologies are developed based on the following considerations: the number of uncertain parameters is usually large, data may be noisy if some parameters are neglected and the complex relationship between uncertain parameters and reservoir production
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https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/tel-01752837
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Emmanuel Fetel. Quantification des incertitudes liées aux simulations d'écoulement dans un réservoir pétrolier à l'aide de surfaces de réponse non linéaires. Sciences de la Terre. Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine, 2007. Français. ⟨NNT : 2007INPL005N⟩. ⟨tel-01752837⟩

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