Accurate geological modeling for subsurface applications and the need for uncertainty assessment
Résumé
Subsrface models are used to forecast the
behavior of the earth regarding fundamental or
applied questions as encountered for example in
petroleum reservoir management. These models
and the associated interpretations often obey
the principle of parsimony, which tells that the
simplest model able to explain observations
should be considered. This quest for simplicity
is certainly useful to identify trends and make
sense out of the various measurements made
about the subsurface. However, this practice also
raises some questions. Indeed, incomplete spatial
coverage, limited resolution and data processing
errors raise ambiguities during interpretation.
Would it be useful to capture the associated
uncertainties? Do they have an impact on
forecasts? Did the interpretation miss some
important unseen features? In the flow simulation
community, many facts suggest that these
questions should be answered positively. This
raises another set of questions about how to
come up with several possible models representing
what is seen, poorly seen, possible and at what
scale. In this talk, I will review some recent
work addressing these questions in the field of
three-dimensional (3D) structural modeling. First,
I will present some results about the impact of
structural uncertainties in the case of a poorly
imaged segmented normal fault for three physical
problems: stress field estimation, flow simulation,
wave propagation and gravity response. Then,
I will discuss some uncertainties related to
the spatial layout of faults and stratigraphic
formations. Depending on the data at hand,
these uncertainties may relate to the position
of faults and horizons, their lateral extent and
the connectivity of fault networks. In some
instances, they also relate to the internal structure
of faults and to their existence. To sample
these uncertainties, prior knowledge must be
formulated in probabilistic terms and a new breed
of object-based simulation is needed to reflect
the interactions between geological structures.
I will illustrate this by showing some examples
of recently developed 3D stochastic structural
simulators, and will discuss avenues for further
improvements of these simulators and challenges
ahead.