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Analyse non-paramétrique des politiques de maintenance basée sur des données des durées de vie hétérogènes

Abstract : In the reliability literature, several researches works have been developed to deal with modeling, analysis and implementation of maintenance policies for equipments subject to random failures. The majority of these works are based on common assumptions among which the distribution function of the equipment lifetimes is assumed to be known. Furthermore, the equipment is assumed to experience only one operating environment. Such assumptions are indeed restrictive and may introduce a bias in the statistical analysis of the distribution function of the equipment lifetimes which in turn impacts optimization of maintenance policies. In the present research work, these two particular assumptions are relaxed. This relaxation allows to take into account of information related to conditions where the equipment is being operating and to focus on the statistical analysis of maintenance policies without using an intermediate parametric lifetimes distribution. The objective of this thesis consists then on the development of efficient statistical models and tools for managing the maintenance of equipments whose lifetimes distribution is unknown and defined through the heterogeneous lifetimes data. Indeed, this thesis proposes a framework for maintenance strategies determination, from lifetimes data acquisition toward the computation of optimal maintenance policies. The maintenance policies considered are assumed to be performed on used equipments. These later are conduct to experience their missions within different environments each of which is characterized by a degree of severity. In this context, a first mathematical model is proposed to evaluate costs induced by maintenance strategies. The analysis of these costs helps to establish the necessary and sufficient conditions to ensure the existence of an optimal age to perform the preventive maintenance. The maintenance costs are fully estimated by using the Kernel method. This estimation method is non-parametric and defined by two parameters, namely the kernel function and the smoothing parameter. The variability of maintenance costs estimator is deeply analyzed according to the smoothing parameter of Kernel method. From these analyses, it is shown that Kernel estimator method ensures a weak propagation of the errors due to the computation of smoothing parameter. In addition, several simulations are made to estimate the optimal replacement age. These simulations figure out that the numerical results from the Kernel method are close to the theoretical values with a weak coefficient of variation. Two probabilistic extensions of the first mathematical model are proposed and theoretically discussed. To deal with the problem of delayed preventive maintenance, an approach is proposed and discussed. The proposed approach allows evaluating the risk that could induce the delay taken to perform a preventive maintenance at the required optimal date. This approach is based on risk analysis conduct on the basis of a proposed risk function
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Submitted on : Thursday, March 29, 2018 - 12:55:17 PM
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Ibrahima Dit Bouran Sibide. Analyse non-paramétrique des politiques de maintenance basée sur des données des durées de vie hétérogènes. Autre. Université de Lorraine, 2014. Français. ⟨NNT : 2014LORR0081⟩. ⟨tel-01750804⟩



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