Contribution à la modélisation et au traitement de l'incertain dans les analyses de risques multidisciplinaires de systèmes industriels : application à la source froide d'une unité de production d'énergie

Abstract : The increasing complexity of industrial systems involves to demonstrate that all the risks are under control. Among the approaches developed, the IRA (developed from several years ago by EDF and CRAN) seems to be a relevant solution by proposing multidisciplinary, generic and unified model. However, these approaches should be improved with regards to modeling and processing of knowledge (provided by statistical experience feedback and expert judgments). This knowledge contains different types of uncertainty that influence the relevance of the results provided to the decision-makers. If the probabilistic framework is well adapted to deal with the uncertainties due to the natural variability of a physical phenomenon, it will be better to choose another framework to deal with the uncertainties due to the lack or imperfection of knowledge (epistemic uncertainties). One issue is to develop an approach adapted to the modeling and to the treatment of the two types of uncertainties. In that way, the evidence theory is an interesting framework to provide more coherent and more flexible modeling and processing of knowledge and uncertainties. Our works propose three main contributions. The first one concerns the formalization of the risks quantification by expert judgments by proposing more complete and flexible assessment tools. The second contribution provides an evidential risks model allowing to represent the different knowledge expressions a more coherent way and to estimate all the risks. Finally, in the last contribution, some tools are proposed for decision-making in uncertain environment. The implementation of these contributions on a real industrial application highlights their feasibility as well as their contributions with regard to more conventional approaches. It also allows us to identify new prospects development for the IRA approach
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Geoffrey Fallet-Fidry. Contribution à la modélisation et au traitement de l'incertain dans les analyses de risques multidisciplinaires de systèmes industriels : application à la source froide d'une unité de production d'énergie. Autre. Université de Lorraine, 2012. Français. ⟨NNT : 2012LORR0273⟩. ⟨tel-01749590⟩

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